UPDATE added 4/7/17 at 4:50: Last scheduled count has been posted and the percent Yes remains at 65.2%. Official certification comes 30 days after the election, but the measure is clearly dead in the water, falling short of the required two thirds majority. The article below was posted on 4/5/17 and is still of interest due to the comments that followed it.
The third results set was posted online Monday afternoon (4/3/17), and Measure Y was still “just short” at 65.2%. 2/3rds or 66.67% approval was needed.
However, to illustrate how big of a chasm 65.2% is compared to the required 66.67%, let’s do a little algebra. The following example will illustrate that algebra really does have practical uses in real life, contrary to the opinion of some math skeptics one occasionally encounters!
The March 30th results release added about 2200 ballots to the total that was announced just after the close of polling on March 28th. Of these late ballots 72.5% were Yes votes which raised some hopes for a last minute turnaround.
I stopped by the Elections Office on Tower Road Friday afternoon and was told that the ballots included in the March 30th release were either received in the mail or submitted to the Elections Office ballot dropoff box or others at, e.g., city halls. I asked them if they had any idea how many additional ballots they might receive in the week after the March 28th deadline, and was told that in the 2016 presidential election they received about 6000. They highly doubted that this local election would approach that number.
This led to the following algebra problem. Let’s assume the late Yes vote percentage stayed high at the 72.5% rate (0.725). We will define the variable x as the number of ballots still outstanding (not yet counted).
As of March 30th, there were 12,977 Yes votes, so the final Yes total would be approximated by 12,977 + 0.725x. The total number of cast ballots by the 30th was 19,914, so the final total would be 19,914 + x.
Make a Yes Votes / Total Votes fraction and set it equal to 2/3rds:
(12,977+0.725x)/(19,914+x) = 2/3
Cross-multiply and solve for x. One gets that at least 5126 votes must be still outstanding if the late vote Yes rate stays at 72.5%. That over 5000 additional votes would still be received seemed very unlikely given that about 6,000 votes were received after close of polls in the Nov. 2016 election.
Nonetheless there was still a small chance that the percentage might shift up?!? Hope springs eternal…
As of yesterday’s data release, only an additional ***80*** votes had been added to the total. 53 were Yes for a 66.25% approval rate ( < 2/3rds 🙁) in this late subset.
This may be my “Dewey beats Truman” “fake news” moment, but it sure looks that, sadly, Measure Y has failed, and our local schools now face budget cuts in a time of economic growth. Turnout remains at a dismal 28% of registered voters.
Final results will be posted on Friday, April 7th at 4:30 PM, but I, for one, will not be holding my breath.
Score yet another victory for activist minorities like the libertarian tax opponents of Measure Y, possibly because too many people did not bother to vote. I thought that perhaps we had learned a lesson after last November, but it sure doesn’t look like it…